A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
